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Profound Medical Corp. (PROF)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered record revenue of $5.29M*, up 86.8% year over year vs $2.83M* in Q3 2024, with gross margin expected at ~72% . Results beat Wall Street consensus: revenue $5.08M* and EPS -$0.37* vs actual EPS -$0.26*; both metrics were better than expected with EPS improving sequentially from Q2’s -$0.53* .
  • Installed base increased to 67 systems (from 60) and management reiterated confidence in reaching at least 75 by year-end, attributing the quarter’s strength to installed base growth and utilization .
  • Management maintained its FY2025 revenue growth target of ~70%–75% (first set earlier in the year), and flagged continued capital pipeline momentum (80 systems at Verify/Negotiate/Contracting stages in Q2) and a Q4 launch for the TULSA‑AI Volume Reduction module for BPH .
  • Strategic catalysts post-quarter include exclusive distribution deals in Saudi Arabia and Australia/New Zealand and regained Canadian distribution rights, expanding commercial reach and potentially accelerating adoption in 2026+ .

Notes: The Q3 earnings call transcript was not available in the corpus as of Nov 20; management commentary for Q3 is drawn from the Oct 7 preliminary press release.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record Q3 revenue driven by installed base growth and higher utilization: “we achieved new highs… driving record total revenues” and TULSA‑PRO installed base reached 67, with year-end target “at least 75” .
  • Gross margin resiliency: Q3 expected ~72% vs 64% prior year, following sustained manufacturing efficiencies noted in earlier quarters (Q2 gross margin 73%; Q1 71%) .
  • Commercial momentum and product roadmap: TULSA‑AI Volume Reduction module soft-launched at five sites with full launch planned for Q4 2025; Siemens Free.Max integration on track for a combined total prostate solution before YE 2025 .

Selected quote: “During the third quarter, we achieved new highs in terms of both TULSA‑PRO installed base growth and existing system utilization, driving record total revenues” — Arun Menawat, CEO .

What Went Wrong

  • Elevated operating expenses and cash usage: Q2 OpEx rose to ~$15.4M (+66% YoY), with net loss of ~$15.7M ($0.52/share), reflecting higher headcount, CAPTAIN trial costs, commissions, and infrastructure support .
  • Capital sales timing volatility: Q2 experienced short-term delays; management said revenues “would have been over $3 million” absent delays, highlighting potential lumpy quarterly results .
  • Back-end loaded pipeline execution: Management reiterated 2025 growth is weighted to H2 as customers transition from placement to capital ownership models, increasing deal-cycle reliance on site readiness and financing .

Financial Results

Revenue, EPS vs Prior Periods and Estimates

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue (USD Millions) – Actual$2.83*$2.62*$2.21*$5.29*
Revenue (USD Millions) – Consensus Mean$3.07*$3.26*$3.47*$5.08*
EPS (USD) – Actual-$0.39*-$0.36*-$0.53*-$0.26*
EPS (USD) – Consensus Mean-$0.31*-$0.28*-$0.41*-$0.37*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Margins

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025 (prelim)
Gross Margin %64% 71% 73% ~72%

Segment Breakdown (Revenue)

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Recurring – non-capital (USD Millions)—$1.80 $1.56 —
Capital Equipment (USD Millions)—$0.82 $0.65 —
Total Revenue (USD Millions)—$2.62*$2.21*$5.29*

Values retrieved from S&P Global where marked with *.

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Installed Base (Units)——60 (prior period reference) 67
Same-Store Procedure Volume (Seq. change)——+10% QoQ —
Capital Sales Pipeline (Qualified systems)——80 “strong and growing” (no count)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Revenue Growth (YoY)FY 2025~70%–75% (reiterated) ~70%–75% (maintained) Maintained
Installed Base TargetYE 2025“at least 75” (implied in pipeline commentary) “at least 75” Maintained
TULSA‑AI Volume Reduction (BPH)Q4 2025Full launch planned Q4 Full launch planned Q4 Maintained
Siemens Free.Max TULSA Combined Solution2H 2025On track before YE 2025 On track before YE 2025 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

(Note: Q3 2025 call transcript unavailable. Trends reference Q1 call, Q2 results, and Q3 preliminary PR.)

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q‑2)Previous Mentions (Q‑1)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Reimbursement/CMSReinforced APC Level 7; seeing hospitals bill and get paid later in quarter CMS Level 7 live Jan 1; early signs of payment and pipeline impact Not specifically updated; implied continued momentum via utilization and revenue Improving confidence
AI/TULSA‑AI BPH ModuleSoft launch at five sites; full launch in Q4 Module introduced; limited release June; full release planned Q4 No change; plan remains Q4 launch On schedule
Capital Model TransitionQ2 impacted by timing delays; still confident in 70–75% FY growth Back-end loaded shift from placement to capital model Installed base up; pipeline “strong and growing” Back-half weighted execution
MRI Partnerships (Siemens Free.Max)On track to initiate combined solution sales before YE 2025 Solution positioned to unlock interventional MRI in urology No change; still expected in 2025 On track
Clinical Data (CAPTAIN RCT)Q2 highlights CAPTAIN perioperative outcomes; supports patient demand Strong positive feedback; expect insurer engagement and guideline progress Real-world data showcases outcomes (Busch Center milestones) Building evidence base
International Expansion——Post‑Q3: Saudi Arabia and ANZ distribution, Canada rights regained Expanding reach

Management Commentary

  • “During the third quarter, we achieved new highs in terms of both TULSA‑PRO installed base growth and existing system utilization, driving record total revenues.” — Arun Menawat, CEO .
  • On Q2 timing: “Had [delayed] capital sales occurred in the quarter, total revenues would have been over $3 million… we continue to work towards achieving total year-over-year revenue growth at ~70% to 75% in 2025.” — Arun Menawat .
  • On commercialization catalysts: “Subject to completion of integration… remain on track to initiate sales of [the] combined total prostate solution before the end of 2025” and “TULSA‑AI Volume Reduction… full launch… Q4‑2025.” — Company statements .

Q&A Highlights

(From Q1 2025 call; Q3 transcript not available)

  • CAPTAIN RCT reception and adoption: Strong clinician interest at teaching hospitals; data expected to drive mainstream adoption and guideline progress .
  • Private insurer engagement: Early pre-approvals observed; pathway to formal policies viewed as favorable given CMS coverage and peer precedents .
  • Pipeline and back-end weighting: Execution expected to be H2‑weighted given transition to capital model; diversified efforts across top cancer centers and ambulatory settings .
  • Commercial organization build-out: U.S. direct sales, nurse education, market development teams ramped; OUS business development ongoing .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 revenue beat: $5.29M* vs consensus $5.08M*; EPS beat: -$0.26* vs -$0.37*.
  • Sequential improvement: EPS improved from -$0.53* in Q2 to -$0.26* in Q3; revenue rose from $2.21M* to $5.29M*.
  • Year-over-year growth: Revenue up to $5.29M* vs $2.83M* in Q3 2024; EPS improved from -$0.39* to -$0.26*.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q3 was a clean beat on both revenue and EPS with margin stability; drivers were installed base growth and higher utilization — supportive of near-term sentiment .
  • Full-year growth framework intact (70–75%), with execution still back-end loaded; expect continued quarterly volatility tied to capital sales timing .
  • Product catalysts (TULSA‑AI BPH module, Siemens combined solution) and newly secured international distribution (Saudi Arabia, ANZ) expand addressable demand into 2026+, augmenting pipeline .
  • Watch gross margin trajectory as installed base grows and manufacturing efficiencies persist; Q1/Q2 margin gains support durability into Q4 .
  • Operating expense growth reflects scale-up; monitor cash usage and commercialization ROI as teams ramp and procedure volumes rise .
  • Reimbursement (APC Level 7) remains a core advantage; insurer engagement should progressively improve utilization and site adoption .
  • Near-term trading setup: positive momentum from Q3 beats and forthcoming Q4 product launches; medium-term thesis hinges on sustained utilization, guideline evolution, and capital cycle conversions.

Sources

  • Q3 preliminary release and 8‑K Item 2.02: installed base, revenue, margin, outlook .
  • Q2 press release and 8‑K: margin, OpEx, net loss, pipeline size, BPH module timing, Siemens integration .
  • Q1 press release and earnings call transcript: financials, reimbursement commentary, commercialization plans .
  • Additional Q4‑to‑date press releases (strategic distribution and Canada rights): .